Top 5 Predictions for Express Entry Draws in 2025

As we step into 2025, Canada’s Express Entry system celebrates a decade of facilitating immigration. Over the past ten years, this system has evolved significantly—from the relaxed draws in 2021 favoring Canadian-experience candidates to the intense competition seen in 2024. While no one can predict with certainty what 2025 holds for Express Entry draws, here are our top five forecasts.

While these predictions can guide your plans for immigrating to Canada, remember that the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores chosen by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) are beyond your control. Instead, focus on improving factors you can influence, such as enhancing your language skills, upgrading your education, or preparing for category-based draws like those for French speakers. To evaluate your CRS, use our free online Express Entry points calculator.

Predictions for 2025

1. Larger Bi-Weekly Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Draws

In late 2024, the federal government announced its intention to prioritize in-Canada applicants, many of whom qualify under the Canadian Experience Class. Despite expectations for large CEC draws in Q4 of 2024, the numbers fell short, with draws as small as 500 invitations.

For 2025, we anticipate substantial increases, with CEC draws issuing between 3,000 and 7,000 invitations monthly. This aligns with Canada’s goals of admitting 39,000 to 89,000 permanent residents under the in-Canada focus, signaling an end to the unusually small draws of late 2024.

2. Persistently High CRS Cut-Offs

The high CRS cut-offs of 2024 are likely to persist through 2025 due to the significant number of temporary residents in Canada vying for permanent residency. For CEC draws, CRS scores could remain above 510, while Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) draws might also see higher cut-offs.

With reduced allocations for PNP immigration in 2025, provinces may prioritize candidates with strong qualifications, such as Canadian work experience or education.

3. Continued Monthly French-Speaker Draws

French-speaking candidates can expect continued opportunities, with one French-focused draw likely each month. These draws could issue between 2,000 and 3,500 invitations, similar to 2024. Early in the year, we might see larger draws, reflecting high immigration targets despite a slow end to 2024.

This trend could spur increased interest in French language programs, especially by mid-2025, as competition for these slots intensifies.

4. Trades and Healthcare Draws 2–3 Times a Year

Targeted draws for trades and healthcare workers are expected to remain a focus for IRCC in 2025. However, the frequency of these draws may stay limited to two or three per year for each category, consistent with the patterns seen in 2024.

5. Elimination of Points for Job Offers

A significant potential change for 2025 is the removal of the 50–200 additional points awarded for valid job offers. Minister Marc Miller has publicly addressed concerns about widespread LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment) fraud, making this a plausible reform.

In 2023, job offer points accounted for 18% of all invitations to apply for permanent residency under Express Entry, impacting over 20,000 candidates. If removed, this change could significantly alter the dynamics of CRS scores and candidate selection.