Foreign Workers in Canada: Variations in Transitioning to Permanent Residency Across Work Permit Programs

Foreign nationals working in Canada on temporary work permits often aim to transition to permanent residency (PR), but the success rates differ significantly across various work permit programs. Prior studies have underscored these variations, primarily focusing on temporary foreign workers (TFWs) who entered Canada before the mid-2010s. With the growing number of TFWs and changes in the composition of work permits, it is important to revisit these transition trends. This article provides an updated analysis of the transition rates by work permit types, offering insights into how effectively these programs support foreign workers in achieving PR and meeting Canada’s labor market needs.

Transition to Permanent Residency: An Overview

This analysis groups work permit holders into five-year cohorts based on the year they received their first work permit. The focus is on two major programs: the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP), with transition rates observed at the 2nd, 5th, and 10th years after obtaining their first permit.

Table 1 summarizes the transition rates by program type and arrival cohorts:

Table 1: Transition to Permanent Residency by Work Permit Holders

The overall trend reveals that transition rates have increased significantly across cohorts. For instance, the five-year transition rate rose from 27% for those who obtained their first work permit between 2006 and 2010, to 34% for the 2011-2015 cohort. Furthermore, the two-year transition rate increased from 12% to 23% between the 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 cohorts.

Factors Driving the Transition Rate Increase

Two main factors contributed to the increase in transition rates:

1. Program-specific increases: Certain programs, such as the Live-in Caregiver Program, saw a significant rise in transition rates. The five-year transition rate for this program jumped by 28 percentage points between the 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 cohorts.
2. Changes in work permit composition: The share of work permits issued under the Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program increased from 8% in the 2006-2010 cohort to 18% in the 2011-2015 cohort, with the PGWP program exhibiting some of the highest transition rates across cohorts.

Disparities in Transition Rates Across Work Permit Programs

While transition rates have generally improved, disparities across different work permit programs have widened. For example, the gap between the five-year transition rates for agricultural workers and PGWP holders grew from 59 percentage points in the 2006-2010 cohort to 64 percentage points in the 2011-2015 cohort.

Moreover, the International Experience Canada (IEC) program and international free trade agreements continue to lag behind the PGWP program in transition rates, with a widening gap observed between cohorts.

Immigration Pathways for Work Permit Holders

By 2022, more than 955,000 foreign workers who received their first work permit between 2006 and 2020 had transitioned to PR, with the vast majority (over 90%) doing so through the economic class. Notably, the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) have become the primary pathways for work permit holders, while the importance of the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) has diminished.

Table 2: Immigration Pathways for Work Permit Holders