Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan

Major Changes Expected for 2024-2026

Canada is gearing up for significant changes to its immigration strategy, as hinted by Immigration Minister Marc Miller in a recent interview with CTV News on August 26. Miller announced that the government is considering “significant” adjustments to the country’s permanent immigration levels, stating that “all options are on the table.”

These adjustments will be reflected in the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan, an annual document released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) that sets the number of new permanent residents (PRs) Canada aims to welcome each year. The plan guides IRCC’s operations and establishes immigration targets for the next three years.

Immigration Targets for 2024-2026

For 2024, Canada aims to welcome 485,000 new PRs. This target will rise to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026. The following table summarizes Canada’s immigration targets by category:

Detailed Breakdown of Immigration Targets

1. Economic Class: The largest category, with targets set to increase from 281,135 in 2024 to 301,250 in both 2025 and 2026. This includes:
   • Federal High Skilled Workers: 110,770 in 2024, rising to 117,500 in 2025 and 2026.
   • Federal Business: 5,000 in 2024, growing to 6,000 in 2025 and 2026.
   • Economic Pilots (Caregivers, Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program, etc.): Includes targets for various pilot programs to support specific labor needs.
   • Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 110,000 in 2024, increasing to 120,000 in the following years.

Note: Numbers for Quebec Skilled Workers and Business categories will be set by Quebec’s immigration plan.

2. Family Class: Targeted at 114,000 in 2024, increasing to 118,000 for both 2025 and 2026. This includes:
   • Spouses, Partners, and Children: 82,000 in 2024, growing to 84,000 in 2025 and 2026.
   • Parents and Grandparents: 32,000 in 2024, increasing to 34,000 for the subsequent years.
3. Refugees and Protected Persons: Targets are 76,115 for 2024, slightly reducing to 72,750 for 2025 and 2026. This reflects Canada’s commitment to resettling refugees and supporting protected persons.
4. Humanitarian and Other: The smallest category, with a target of 13,750 in 2024, dropping to 8,000 in 2025 and 2026.
5. Francophone Permanent Resident Immigration outside Quebec: Focuses on increasing the number of French-speaking immigrants, with targets set at 26,100 in 2024, rising to 31,500 in 2025, and 36,000 in 2026.

Future Considerations and Adjustments

Minister Miller indicated that changes to these targets would not be merely cosmetic, but potentially transformative. He suggested there could be shifts in the types of immigrants Canada supports, with the current level of 60% of new PRs being economic immigrants considered “unprecedented” compared to other countries.

However, Miller also cautioned against “overcorrecting.” He stressed that immigration has been vital in helping Canada avoid a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic and that any changes would be made thoughtfully.

In response to declining public support for immigration due to housing and affordability concerns, IRCC has already begun implementing new policies, such as:

• Capping study permits for international students.
• Increasing “domestic” draws for permanent residence.
• Limiting low-wage temporary foreign workers in areas with high unemployment.

Further adjustments are anticipated in the fall, as hinted by Miller and echoed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who emphasized maintaining Canada’s positive stance on immigration while ensuring successful integration for all.

Looking Ahead

In 2023, IRCC froze immigration levels at 500,000 PRs annually for 2025 and 2026, with these targets potentially being revised based on Canada’s evolving needs. Immigration remains a crucial factor in Canada’s labor market growth, particularly in light of an aging population and the impending retirement of many workers.

A reduction in immigration could have significant implications for Canada’s healthcare, pension, education, and housing systems, all of which depend on a steady influx of new residents to sustain their operations.

Canada’s Planned Permanent Resident Admissions by Category (2024-2026)

These targets demonstrate Canada’s commitment to maintaining robust immigration levels, supporting economic growth, and addressing demographic challenges while balancing public sentiment and managing resources effectively.