Immigration forecast: June 13, 2024

This year, the Express Entry system aims to process 110,770 immigrants, offering a clearer picture of who will receive Invitations to Apply (ITAs).

The number of ITA rounds planned in 2024 by round type:

• General: No specific target
• French Language Proficiency: 30%
• Healthcare: 15%
• Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM): 25%
• Trade: 5%
• Transport: 3%
• Agriculture and Agri-Food: 0.5%

ITA Distribution for the first six months of 2024

IRCC has held 19 Express Entry draws in the first six months of 2024. A total of 41,955 ITAs were issued to the applicants.

Draw types have been:

Projections for the Remainder of 2024

1. General/All Program Draws

So far, 60% of ITAs have been issued through category-based rounds, while 40% have been through general draws. The higher proportion of general draws may be influenced by Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates, which the internal memo does not address. General draws have been held thrice in January 2024, twice a month in March and April 2024; it’s uncertain if this trend will continue.

2. French Proficiency Category

French proficiency will dominate ITAs, with 30% expected to go to these applicants. With a target range of 105,000 to 120,000 ITAs for the year, approximately 31,500 ITAs will be for French proficiency. So far, 12,400 ITAs have been issued in this category. As the year progresses, the frequency of these draws may decrease.

3. STEM Occupations Category

Despite a slow start, STEM draws are anticipated to ramp up. Only one STEM draw has occurred, issuing 4,500 ITAs on the 11^th of April 2024. With a target of 25% for STEM, we expect 21,750 to 25,000 ITAs to be issued in this category over the next eight months, likely resulting in 4 to 5 more draws.

4. Healthcare Occupations Category

To date, 3,500 ITAs have been issued for healthcare occupations on the 14^th of February 2024. By year’s end, this category should account for 15% of ITAs, translating to an additional 12,000 to 14,500 ITAs and 3 to 4 more draws.

Transportation, Trade, and Agriculture Categories

Together, these categories will comprise 8.5% of ITAs, roughly broken down as:

• Transportation: 3,000 ITAs
• Trade: 6,000 ITAs
• Agriculture: 700 ITAs

Given the low allocation, candidates in these fields might consider exploring Provincial Nominee Programs for better opportunities.